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Special report: Israel and the Middle East

Kadima still favoured as Israel goes to polls

image showing Labour party leader Amir Peretz and his wife Achlama

Labour party leader Amir Peretz and his wife Achlama cast their votes in Israeli general elections. Photograph: David Furst/EPA

Israelis are today voting in a general election many expect will result in a government with a mandate to set the final borders of the Jewish state.

Opinion polls suggest Kadima, the party set up by the stricken Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, will see off the opposition unless there is unexpected surge to the right.

As Israelis voted, an explosion near a farming community in southern Israel killed an adult and a child who were reportedly Arab shepherds in a field.

Rescue officials said either a Palestinian rocket attack or stray ordnance near the border with the Gaza Strip had caused the blast.

The Islamic Jihad militant group claimed responsibility, saying the explosion had been timed to disrupt the election, the Associated Press reported. In the past, Palestinian violence has driven Israeli voters towards hardline parties.

The acting Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert of Kadima, cast his vote as the polls opened amid high security at 7am local time (0600 BST).

Go out and vote, all of Israel, a smiling Mr Olmert said, referring to predictions that many Israelis would shun the election because they see the result as a foregone conclusion.

Seven hours after voting began, 30.9% of Israel's 4.5 million eligible voters had cast their ballots, the Central Elections Committee said. That figure was nearly 4% below levels from the last election, in 2003, and analysts said a low turnout could hit Kadima's prospects.

The first exit polls are expected after voting ends at 10pm local time.

The election is widely seen as a referendum on the future of the West Bank, which Israel has occupied for 39 years.

Mr Olmert plans to withdraw unilaterally from most Israeli settlements in the West Bank if the Palestinians, and their new Hamas government, fail to become "partners for peace".

In a newspaper article published today, he said no Jewish settlements would be left east of Israel's West Bank security wall if, as expected, Kadima became the main element in a new coalition government.

Commentators said the article, in the Yediot Ahronot daily, was Mr Olmert's clearest statement yet regarding the fate of dozens of small Jewish settlements across the West Bank.

He plans to move around 70,000 settlers in smaller sites to a larger settlement, which Israel will annex.

We will determine the line of the security fence, and we will make sure that no Jewish settlements will be left on the other side of the fence. Drawing the final borders is our obligation as leaders and as a society

Polls just before the election showed Kadima - which was founded by Mr Sharon in November - maintaining a wide lead, although slightly reduced from two months ago.

Mr Olmert took over the party leadership when Mr Sharon, who is still in a coma, suffered a stroke in January.

Polls suggest Kadima will win around 35 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the Labour party will win about 20 seats, and the Likud party will win some 15 seats.

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